This paper presents novel methods for estimating certified radii in randomized smoothing, a technique crucial for certifying the robustness of neural networks against adversarial perturbations. Our proposed techniques significantly improve the accuracy of certified test-set accuracy by providing tighter bounds on the certified radii. We introduce advanced algorithms for both discrete and continuous domains, demonstrating their effectiveness on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. The new methods show considerable improvements over existing approaches, particularly in reducing discrepancies in certified radii estimates. We also explore the impact of various hyperparameters, including sample size, standard deviation, and temperature, on the performance of these methods. Our findings highlight the potential for more efficient certification processes and pave the way for future research on tighter confidence sequences and improved theoretical frameworks. The study concludes with a discussion of potential future directions, including enhanced estimation techniques for discrete domains and further theoretical advancements to bridge the gap between empirical and theoretical performance in randomized smoothing.

We offer theoretical and empirical insights into the impact of exogenous randomness on the effectiveness of random forests with tree-building rules independent of training data. We formally introduce the concept of exogenous randomness and identify two types of commonly existing randomness: Type I from feature subsampling, and Type II from tie-breaking in tree-building processes. We develop non-asymptotic expansions for the mean squared error (MSE) for both individual trees and forests and establish sufficient and necessary conditions for their consistency. In the special example of the linear regression model with independent features, our MSE expansions are more explicit, providing more understanding of the random forests' mechanisms. It also allows us to derive an upper bound on the MSE with explicit consistency rates for trees and forests. Guided by our theoretical findings, we conduct simulations to further explore how exogenous randomness enhances random forest performance. Our findings unveil that feature subsampling reduces both the bias and variance of random forests compared to individual trees, serving as an adaptive mechanism to balance bias and variance. Furthermore, our results reveal an intriguing phenomenon: the presence of noise features can act as a "blessing" in enhancing the performance of random forests thanks to feature subsampling.

The normalized maximum likelihood (NML) code length is widely used as a model selection criterion based on the minimum description length principle, where the model with the shortest NML code length is selected. A common method to calculate the NML code length is to use the sum (for a discrete model) or integral (for a continuous model) of a function defined by the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. While this method has been proven to correctly calculate the NML code length of discrete models, no proof has been provided for continuous cases. Consequently, it has remained unclear whether the method can accurately calculate the NML code length of continuous models. In this paper, we solve this problem affirmatively, proving that the method is also correct for continuous cases. Remarkably, completing the proof for continuous cases is non-trivial in that it cannot be achieved by merely replacing the sums in discrete cases with integrals, as the decomposition trick applied to sums in the discrete model case proof is not applicable to integrals in the continuous model case proof. To overcome this, we introduce a novel decomposition approach based on the coarea formula from geometric measure theory, which is essential to establishing our proof for continuous cases.

Let $X$ and $Z$ be random vectors, and $Y=g(X,Z)$. In this paper, on the one hand, for the case that $X$ and $Z$ are continuous, by using the ideas from the total variation and the flux of $g$, we develop a point of view in causal inference capable of dealing with a broad domain of causal problems. Indeed, we focus on a function, called Probabilistic Easy Variational Causal Effect (PEACE), which can measure the direct causal effect of $X$ on $Y$ with respect to continuously and interventionally changing the values of $X$ while keeping the value of $Z$ constant. PEACE is a function of $d\ge 0$, which is a degree managing the strengths of probability density values $f(x|z)$. On the other hand, we generalize the above idea for the discrete case and show its compatibility with the continuous case. Further, we investigate some properties of PEACE using measure theoretical concepts. Furthermore, we provide some identifiability criteria and several examples showing the generic capability of PEACE. We note that PEACE can deal with the causal problems for which micro-level or just macro-level changes in the value of the input variables are important. Finally, PEACE is stable under small changes in $\partial g_{in}/\partial x$ and the joint distribution of $X$ and $Z$, where $g_{in}$ is obtained from $g$ by removing all functional relationships defining $X$ and $Z$.

The power-law distribution plays a crucial role in complex networks as well as various applied sciences. Investigating whether the degree distribution of a network follows a power-law distribution is an important concern. The commonly used inferential methods for estimating the model parameters often yield biased estimates, which can lead to the rejection of the hypothesis that a model conforms to a power-law. In this paper, we discuss improved methods that utilize Bayesian inference to obtain accurate estimates and precise credibility intervals. The inferential methods are derived for both continuous and discrete distributions. These methods reveal that objective Bayesian approaches return nearly unbiased estimates for the parameters of both models. Notably, in the continuous case, we identify an explicit posterior distribution. This work enhances the power of goodness-of-fit tests, enabling us to accurately discern whether a network or any other dataset adheres to a power-law distribution. We apply the proposed approach to fit degree distributions for more than 5,000 synthetic networks and over 3,000 real networks. The results indicate that our method is more suitable in practice, as it yields a frequency of acceptance close to the specified nominal level.

Recent papers have used machine learning architecture to fit low-order functional ANOVA models with main effects and second-order interactions. These GAMI (GAM + Interaction) models are directly interpretable as the functional main effects and interactions can be easily plotted and visualized. Unfortunately, it is not easy to incorporate the monotonicity requirement into the existing GAMI models based on boosted trees, such as EBM (Lou et al. 2013) and GAMI-Lin-T (Hu et al. 2022). This paper considers models of the form $f(x)=\sum_{j,k}f_{j,k}(x_j, x_k)$ and develops monotone tree-based GAMI models, called monotone GAMI-Tree, by adapting the XGBoost algorithm. It is straightforward to fit a monotone model to $f(x)$ using the options in XGBoost. However, the fitted model is still a black box. We take a different approach: i) use a filtering technique to determine the important interactions, ii) fit a monotone XGBoost algorithm with the selected interactions, and finally iii) parse and purify the results to get a monotone GAMI model. Simulated datasets are used to demonstrate the behaviors of mono-GAMI-Tree and EBM, both of which use piecewise constant fits. Note that the monotonicity requirement is for the full model. Under certain situations, the main effects will also be monotone. But, as seen in the examples, the interactions will not be monotone.

Offline estimation of the dynamical model of a Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a non-trivial task that greatly depends on the data available to the learning phase. Sometimes the dynamics of the model is invariant with respect to some transformations of the current state and action. Recent works showed that an expert-guided pipeline relying on Density Estimation methods as Deep Neural Network based Normalizing Flows effectively detects this structure in deterministic environments, both categorical and continuous-valued. The acquired knowledge can be exploited to augment the original data set, leading eventually to a reduction in the distributional shift between the true and the learnt model. In this work we extend the paradigm to also tackle non deterministic MDPs, in particular 1) we propose a detection threshold in categorical environments based on statistical distances, 2) we introduce a benchmark of the distributional shift in continuous environments based on the Wilcoxon signed-rank statistical test and 3) we show that the former results lead to a performance improvement when solving the learnt MDP and then applying the optimal policy in the real environment.